Tajikistan. Chinese invasion is called off

RuNet was agitated by rumors about the “occupation” of Gorno-Badakhshan

Adherents of the concept of the “Chinese threat” have recently received a new reason to speculate about the quiet expansion of the PRC in the post-Soviet space. Rumors about the occupation of Tajik territory by troops of the Celestial Empire have excited the news space.

Several Russian media outlets immediately reprinted the message that appeared in early May in the online publication Forum.msk. Citing unnamed sources in the Tajik opposition, the publication reported that Chinese troops had captured the eastern Pamirs in the Murghab region of Tajikistan and taken control of the only highway in the region.

The publication also reported that over the years of independence, Tajikistan has already transferred 1.5 thousand square kilometers of disputed territories to China, the total area of which is 28.5 thousand square meters. km. It is also alleged that at the beginning of the year, Dushanbe, in order to pay off its external debt to Beijing, was preparing to transfer part of the Pamir highlands, which are considered uninhabitable, but are rich in deposits of precious stones, rare minerals and even uranium. Exploration work has already begun in Murghab, maps are being made and an assessment of the deposits will begin in the near future, it said. edition

“No one knows exactly what the volume of uranium deposits in Badakhshan is, but it is known that there is uranium there,” noted editor-in-chief FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov. “In addition, there are many deposits of strategic raw materials, including tungsten and rare earth metals. It is true that Murghab, where there is snow even in summer, is of little use for life. But this is an important strategic point - Murghab lies on the Pamir Highway, thus the PRC will control the only transport artery in the Pamirs. In general, Tajikistan is the buckle of the soldier’s belt with which Russia holds Central Asia, and the surrender of positions in Tajikistan is the surrender of the entire region, up to Orenburg and Astrakhan. Although, when Russian border troops left the Tajik-Afghan border by Putin’s decision, it was already clear that Russia was leaving the East, and someone would definitely come in its place. China has made a request; by the time the troops withdraw from Afghanistan, it must be assumed that the United States and Great Britain will make their move. Iran and Pakistan are interested. It’s reminiscent of dividing up a dead man’s junk, some boots, some a peacoat...”

However, the information did not find any official confirmation from either the Tajik or Chinese side. However, no clear denials were made either.

A little later, the situation was clarified a little by Kyrgyz journalists from the Vesti.kg portal. As the head of the Border Service of Kyrgyzstan, Tokon Mamytov, told them, reports about the entry of Chinese troops into Tajikistan are nothing more than a “canard.” “Just this morning I spoke on the phone with the first deputy chairman of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan, the head of the main department of the Border Troops of Tajikistan, Mirzo Sherali, and he said that the situation is stable. Moreover, to say that China has occupied the Murghab region means, at best, do not understand the processes taking place in Central Asia. Both Dushanbe and Beijing are members of the SCO, which signed a series of documents within the framework of this organization on the observance of territorial integrity. Naturally, there is information that a friendly state suddenly, almost out of the blue, occupied its lands. neighbor are wrong,” Mamytov said.

Experts have already suggested that the message could be an attempt to put pressure on Dushanbe from Moscow, which also claims influence in the region. However, it is worth noting that there are precedents for the “quiet” transfer of territories to the PRC by countries former USSR have already taken place before, so a similar scenario in Tajikistan cannot be completely ruled out.

“No one knows exactly what the volume of uranium deposits is in Badakhshan, but it is known that there is uranium there,” said Anatoly Baranov, editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk. - In addition, there are many deposits of strategic raw materials, including tungsten and rare earth metals. It is true that Murghab, where there is snow even in summer, is of little use for life. But this is an important strategic point - Murghab lies on the Pamir Highway, thus the PRC will control the only transport artery in the Pamirs. In general, Tajikistan is the buckle of the soldier’s belt with which Russia holds Central Asia, and the surrender of positions in Tajikistan is the surrender of the entire region, up to Orenburg and Astrakhan. Although, when Russian border troops left the Tajik-Afghan border by Putin’s decision, it was already clear that Russia was leaving the East, and someone would definitely come in its place. China has made a request; by the time the troops withdraw from Afghanistan, it must be assumed that the United States and Great Britain will make their move. Iran and Pakistan are interested. It’s reminiscent of dividing up a dead man’s junk, some boots, some a peacoat...”

However, the information did not find any official confirmation from either the Tajik or Chinese side. However, no clear denials were made either.

A little later, the situation was clarified a little by Kyrgyz journalists from the Vesti.kg portal. As the head of the Border Service of Kyrgyzstan, Tokon Mamytov, told them, reports about the entry of Chinese troops into Tajikistan are nothing more than a “canard.” “Just this morning I spoke on the phone with the first deputy chairman of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan, the head of the main department of the Border Troops of Tajikistan, Mirzo Sherali, and he said that the situation is stable. Moreover, to say that China has occupied the Murghab region means, at best, do not understand the processes taking place in Central Asia. Both Dushanbe and Beijing are members of the SCO, which signed a series of documents within the framework of this organization on the observance of territorial integrity. Naturally, there is information that a friendly state suddenly, for no apparent reason, occupied its lands. neighbor are wrong,” Mamytov said.

Experts have already suggested that the message could be an attempt to put pressure on Dushanbe from Moscow, which also claims influence in the region. However, it is worth noting that precedents for the “quiet” transfer of territories to the PRC from the countries of the former USSR have already taken place earlier, so a similar scenario in Tajikistan cannot be completely ruled out.

DUSHANBE, June 7 – Sputnik, Vadim Popov. Tajikistan is among the countries with increasing financial vulnerability due to obligations to China.

Experts from the Center for Global Development (USA) studied the investment policy of the PRC and found that the states of Asia, Africa and Europe owe the Chinese $8 trillion.

Tajikistan was at risk along with Kyrgyzstan, Djibouti, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, and Pakistan.

Where does Tajikistan's debt to China come from?

Tajikistan's total debt to China is $1.2 billion (more than 20% of GDP). The total amount of external debt as of April 1, 2018 amounted to $2.859 billion. Most of Tajikistan's liabilities are government debt on “tied” loans. The funds are used for infrastructure projects necessary for the development of the republic’s economy.

In exchange for financial assistance, Tajikistan is obliged to import goods, provide control over deposits, and fulfill other, often unfavorable, terms of agreements.

Thus, in exchange for the construction of the Dushanbe-2 thermal power plant, the government of Tajikistan granted the Chinese company TBEA the right to mine gold at the Upper Kumarg deposit. The Chinese will own the field until Tajikistan returns $331 million.

Most of the PRC's loans to Tajikistan are in one way or another related to the mining industry. Experts do not rule out that growing volumes of direct investment in strategically important industries could lead to Tajikistan’s dependence on its powerful neighbor.

Kyrgyzstan is a fellow debt disaster

A similar situation is developing in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. The public external debt of Kyrgyzstan to China (Eximbank of China) amounts to $1 billion 709 million. Of this, $386 million was taken for the modernization of the capital's thermal power plant.

Over the past 10 years, the debt to China has increased almost 200 times. In March, Chinese Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Xiao Qinghua said that the debt would be paid according to agreements, and the Chinese side was not discussing the issue of write-off.

Citizens of the republic are seriously concerned about the current situation. Those who are concerned are worried that the borrower may take part of the land instead of the debt. In order for the economically active population - 2.5 million Kyrgyzstanis - to pay off the national debt of the PRC, each person must allocate $680. The activists’ offer to “chip in” stirred up the public in Kyrgyzstan. Meanwhile, debt to the Chinese continues to grow.

To protect trade routes, China needs military bases; sites for them can also be purchased to pay off unpaid debt.

Thus, analysts suggest that the Chinese may gain control of the port on the island of Espiritu Santo in the state of Vanuatu. For the construction of this and other facilities, China provided Vanuatu with a loan of $270 million, which amounted to about half of the Pacific state's external debt, or about a third of GDP. A Chinese naval base may appear at a distance of 2 thousand kilometers from Australia.

Analysts' concerns are not unfounded. China already has a foreign base received as debt from Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. The total loans of this state reached half of GDP. As the Center for Global Development predicts, China's share of Djibouti's public debt will increase in the near future from 82 to 91%. The base is located next to an important transport artery on the border between Asia and Europe.

In 2015, the Pakistani government leased the port of Gwadar to the Chinese state-owned company China Overseas Port Holding for 43 years to create a “special economic zone.” Islamabad owes Beijing nearly $16 billion. The deal will give China 91% of the profits from the port's revenues, plus another 85% of its revenues will be given to China by the "free zone". Gwadar is the most important site in China's ties with the Middle East. The Pakistan corridor is designed to relieve congestion in the Strait of Malacca, through which more than 80 percent of the oil imported by China currently passes.

In 2002, the Chinese government wrote off debts to the Hamid Karzai government in Afghanistan. According to the official explanation, China wants to help cope with the crisis caused by the consequences of the Taliban regime and the American anti-terrorism campaign. The specific amount of debts written off has not been disclosed.

From 2000 to 2009, China wrote off the debts of 35 African states totaling $2.85 billion. In 2007, the debts of 49 of the most undeveloped and poorest countries in Asia, the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean. Mongolia's debts were written off. The specific terms of many transactions remained unknown.

Should Central Asia be wary of Chinese expansion?

Returning to the situation in Central Asia, it is worth noting that the governments of the republics are assuring the population of the need for loans.

Thus, the first deputy director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Tajikistan, Saifullo Safarov, believes that there is no expansion of China into Tajikistan, but there is friendly relations and strategic partnerships.

In turn, the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, notes as a reason for pride that foreign investment per resident of the republic exceeds the world average and is twice as high as in developing countries. At the same time, the share of investments in the mining industry of Kazakhstan amounted to 34% of the total volume, plus 23% for geological exploration.

The head of the economics department at the Institute of CIS Countries, Aza Migranyan, is confident that the Chinese do not need political control over Central Asia. All they want is to gain a competitive advantage in the market natural resources. The expert explains the actions of the leadership of the Central Asian states with the need to develop. After all, the economy of Central Asia really needs financial resources.

But not everyone shares this optimism.

Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, Semyon Bagdasarov, believes that China has far-reaching plans for Central Asia and its immediate neighbors. He is confident that China should be feared no less than the United States.

“The Chinese have moved on to the second stage - military expansion. They are not our allies. If a situation arises when we need to be dumped, they will do it with no less pleasure than the Americans,” Semyon Bagdasarov told Sputnik Tajikistan.

International financial organizations also warn Tajikistan and its neighbors against debt dependence.

In November 2017, the IMF decided to reclassify the poverty level in Tajikistan to a higher one. This decision was made due to a violation of the indicative limits on the state debt of the republic.

“It is critical that low-income developing countries increase their fiscal capacity to enable them to service their debt... And it is important not to create unnecessary incentives at a time when economic activity is already accelerating,” says the Fund’s special report, “Decreasing high level debt."

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, noted that the level and burden of debt of sovereign states and corporations has reached unprecedented levels. It's now roughly $162 trillion, roughly 220% of global GDP, much more than after World War II—and counting.

The IMF notes that, in addition to debt, the cost of servicing it is increasing, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to take out loans. Under these conditions, China's proposals are perceived as salvation. We can only hope that the drowning people will swim out and not go down with their saviors.

The land issue in Tajikistan risks escalating into an interethnic conflict.
Evidence of this is the entry of troops of the People's Republic of China into the territory neighboring country. Beijing has established military control over part of the land in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) of Tajikistan. Dushanbe transferred these territories to China to pay off its external debt. It is known that the Tajik authorities gave tens of hectares of land to their Chinese partners in the Murgab region of GBAO, but the official authorities refuse to confirm this fact. In total, during the years of independence, the Chinese were given 1.5 thousand square kilometers of land, which was essentially a disputed territory.

The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region is known for its position regarding the central government. Residents of GBAO do not always obey the decisions of official Dushanbe, often causing the republican leadership to “fire” on themselves. It is worth recalling that in the summer of 2012, a conflict broke out in the autonomy, provoked by the center, in which civilians also died. Gorno-Badakhshan came to the defense of its field commanders, who were being persecuted by the country's authorities. If expansion with the involvement of the military on the part of China continues, it is possible that another conflict will break out in the region, this time with a territorial overtone.
Since the beginning of 2013, many experts warned that the country’s authorities were preparing an act on the transfer of land to China, but no one took the information seriously.

The territories were given to the PRC to pay off external debt. In the future, high mountain lands will be given to China. The Chinese side needs them because they are rich in deposits of precious stones, uranium and minerals. It is known that at this time the Chinese have already begun geological exploration work in Murghab itself.

It is known that not only military personnel, but also civilians have already begun to enter the territory of Tajikistan. The latter will develop the lands where ethnic Tajiks once lived. Today there is an unspoken struggle between the parties for land, which Tajiks do not want to cede to Chinese migrants. However, they will apparently still have to do this, since there is a government document obliging the local population to leave the territory.

That's how things are. Immediately a bunch of questions arise in full force.
China will not miss its goal, that’s a fact. The entire territory and everything on it is used to its fullest. And all problems will be solved, including by force if necessary.
Tajikistan gave land to China to pay off its debt. The interesting thing is that they owe Russia a lot of money, but they are not going to give anything back, much less land. Moreover, with an impudent face they demand money, and more and more for our military base. At the same time, all the time talking about friendship and demanding all sorts of concessions and visa-free entry into Russia.
And also, if the population of the already transferred Chinese lands has to move, then the question is: Where will they go in droves? Guess.

These are the pies.

On May 13 of this year, Victoria Nikitina writes: “Since May 6, China has been sending troops into the territory of Tajikistan. Part of the Gorno-Badashkhan Autonomous Region of this state was given to China for debts. In Dushanbe they consider it unfit for habitation. However, China treats this territory differently, not unreasonably considering it important from a strategic point of view.” The journalist hired the head of the Center for Political Research at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Boris Shmelev, as an expert in frying facts and peppering arguments, who did not at all doubt the information about the entry of Chinese troops into Tajikistan.

In the opinion of this authoritative specialist, this case is international relations refers to “special” ones, even to symbolic events. China is strengthening its position in the world, turning economic power into political influence.

And such a failed state as Tajikistan, represented by the president, is forced to flirt with China: after all, it provides the money needed for elections. But, the analyst asks, what will the introduction of troops lead to? What should Russia do here?

The scientist advises the native government to accept what has happened as a fact and take this very fact into account in its foreign policy strategy. How to take it into account? Russia should play an important role in Central Asia and allocate significant funds to support its states. If she doesn’t do this, then others will do it - the same China.

“As for the very fact of selling land for debts, I will say this: every country is sovereign, and therefore can look for forms of debt repayment that are convenient for it...”

Well, there’s no point in thinking about it, let’s add it as a joke. The President of Tajikistan can sell Tajikistan to the Chinese - and that’s all for nothing. Why does he need it? All Tajiks have been working in Russia for a long time. So the “repayment form” is very convenient.

Igor Rotar () recalls that horror stories about a Chinese offensive in Central Asia have been exciting the Russian media for several years, and now it has come to reports of the “occupation of the Pamirs by China.” It has even come to the point of the appearance of maps allegedly published in the Celestial Empire, on which China owns all of Central Asia and a significant part of Russia.

Since Dushanbe simply did not see anything about the “occupation,” the Rosbalt correspondent had to contact via social network"Odnoklassniki" with residents of Murghab. In response, he received several replies that “no Chinese” were “seen” there.

Later, on May 7, the “news” about the Chinese invasion was clarified by the Kyrgyz portal Vesti.kg. The head of the Border Service of Kyrgyzstan, Tokon Mamytov, told reporters that reports about the entry of Chinese troops into Tajikistan are nothing more than a “canard.” Mr. Mamytov stated:

“Just this morning I spoke on the phone with the first deputy chairman of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan, head of the main directorate of the Border Troops of Tajikistan Mirzo Sherali, and he said that the situation is stable. Moreover, to say that China has occupied the Murghab region means, at best, not to understand the processes taking place in Central Asia. Both Dushanbe and Beijing are members of the SCO, having signed a series of documents within the framework of this organization on maintaining territorial integrity. Naturally, the information that a friendly state suddenly, out of nowhere, almost occupied the lands of its neighbor is erroneous.”

And Khairullo Mirsaidov, a columnist for the Tajik media holding Asia Plus, told Rosbalt that the rumor about Chinese expansion “was started by Russia, and is itself inflating it.” The goal of the Moscow “duck” is for Russia to return “its border guards to our border.”

By a strange coincidence, the correspondent notes, on May 8, the Russian President just signed laws on the ratification of agreements on the conditions for the presence of Russian military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Returning to the Chinese-occupied territories of Tajikistan, we must add this.

Back on April 15, i.e., more than three weeks before the appearance of the story about Chinese expansion, a note appeared with a link to the above-mentioned Tajik resource “Asia plus”.

China received more Tajik territory than Dushanbe was given to it, said Rakhmatillo Zoirov, chairman of the National Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan. As reported on the website of the Iranian radio Sadoi Khuroson, Rakhmatillo Zoirov does not rule out that in exchange for debts to China, Tajikistan may give up another part of the territory of the Murghab region. Chinese border guards penetrated 20 km deeper into the territory of Tajikistan than previously discussed. An Iranian radio station quotes Zoyirov:

“I myself personally traveled to the Murghab region and saw that Chinese border guards in certain areas established their borders 20 km deep into Tajik territory, although Tajikistan and China agreed to transfer only 1.1 thousand square kilometers of the territory of the Murghab region.”

Mr. Zoyirov believes that the transfer of military forces and equipment to the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region under the pretext of conducting anti-terrorist exercises there is connected precisely with the discussion of the transfer of part of the lands of the Murghab region to China and the debts of Dushanbe.

However, official representatives of the Ministry of Defense of Tajikistan deny these rumors.

REGNUM news agency recalls that Tajikistan approved the transfer of part of the territory to the PRC in January 2011, when the parliament of the republic ratified the protocol on the demarcation of the border with the PRC, according to which 1.1 thousand square meters are allocated to China. km of disputed territories. The official ceremony of transferring the land took place in the fall of that year. The area of China increased by 1,158 square kilometers, while the territory of Tajikistan decreased by 1%.

Eduard Limonov, in his “sermon” dated May 14, wrote that what is happening in Gorno-Badakhshan is “hardly accessible to observers,” since there “is not Pushkin Square,” but “mountains, and how dense they are!”

If Tajikistan transferred a territory of 1.5 thousand square kilometers to China to pay off the national debt, then Tajikistan, Limonov believes, will keep information about this secret - after all, “distributing pieces” of their native land will have a bad effect on the morality of Tajiks.

What about the Chinese? Why are these people silent?

And for them, writes Limonov, the dissemination of such information is also unprofitable: they “prefer to swallow up territories in silence.”

“And the fact that the Chinese are experts at moving the border deep into foreign territories is widely known. What they did on the Amur near Tarabarov Island, when they changed the course of the Amur (flooded barges and transported sand, because according to the treaty the border runs along a fairway) in order to chop off pieces of our territory is widely known. Few people know that the border with China now runs along the city beach of Khabarovsk. By God, this is so!

Limonov states:

“I reproach, and will continue to reproach, my compatriots for political frivolity and political imbecility.

They quickly enter into hysterical debates about things that are absolutely unimportant, purely Moscow-related, and ignore serious and terrible problems.

Giant China is breathing hotly and swallowing saliva, looking at the former Soviet Asia ... "

According to Limonov, the PRC is already blocking rivers (for example, the Black Irtysh) and “stealing four-fifths of the water intake for itself.” Now, having seized the Pamirs, he will control the sources of the great rivers.

Now let’s take a break from Comrade Limonov’s prose and check how the Russian military is feeling in Tajikistan: do they notice nearby Chinese hordes encroaching on Tajik uranium and other attractive territories, and are they shifting the borders somewhere? In fact, the military is the most reliable source of what is happening in the republic.

On May 13, he reported that units and formations of the 201st Russian military base stationed in Tajikistan were serving as normal.

The head of the press service of the Central Military District, Yaroslav Roshchupkin, told the correspondent about this. “Russian 201 military bases stationed in Tajikistan are operating as normal,” Comrade Roshchupkin emphasized.

Russian military personnel do not observe Chinese troops on the territory of Tajikistan.